Data Transparency ยท XAUUSD M1 ยท 2009โ€“2025

The Data Behind Nova

No black box. No marketing. Just numbers.

Nova is built on 17 years of XAUUSD market data โ€” 5,880,941 M1 candles from March 2009 to December 2025.

01 โ€” Dataset Overview

5.880.941

M1 candles

17

Historical data

52.1%

Bull candles

$0.49

Avg. candle range

02 โ€” ATR per Year

Volatility through the years

2025 is the most volatile year ever measured. ATR stands at $1.37 โ€” nearly 2ร— the average.

20092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025$0$0.35$0.7$1.05$1.4

2009โ€“2016

$0.39

Calm

2017โ€“2021

$0.41

Average

2022โ€“2025

$0.78

Volatile

03 โ€” ATR per Hour (GMT+2)

The golden trading window

Hours 10โ€“13u (green zone) are historically the most active. Nova focuses on this window.

06u07u08u09u10u11u12u13u14u15u16u17u18u19u20u$0$0.25$0.5$0.75$1Golden Zone
04 โ€” ATR per Day

Friday is the most active

Nova stops after 17:30 โ€” liquidity drops sharply after the London session closes.

$0$0.15$0.3$0.45$0.6MonTueWedThuFri
05 โ€” ATR per Month

October, April & November highlighted

These months historically score highest โ€” the ML score factors this into every signal.

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec$0$0.15$0.3$0.45$0.6
06 โ€” Bull vs Bear Distribution

Slight bull bias across all years

Average 52.1% bull candles over 17 years โ€” XAUUSD has a structural upward bias.

200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420250%15%30%56%
07 โ€” ML Training

8,183 signals trained

Period 2020โ€“2025. Five factors determine the ML score on each signal.

35%

SL distance

Smaller SL = less risk = higher score

24%

ATR level

Higher volatility = better chance of movement

14%

Month

Historically strong months weigh more

11%

Hour

Golden window 10โ€“13h scores higher

9%

Day

Wednesday & Thursday historically strong

Score table

8โ€“10โ˜… STRONG
6โ€“7โœ… NORMAL
4โ€“5โš ๏ธ CAUTION
0โ€“3๐Ÿ”ด WEAK
08 โ€” Win Rate Analysis

Higher ML score = higher win rate

58%win rate

All signals

62%win rate

SUMMUM

65%win rate

ML Score 8+

Historical data 2009โ€“2025. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trading involves risks.